Showing posts with label future studies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future studies. Show all posts

Saturday, March 20, 2010

More SF (speculations on person-centred care...?)

I've been reading a bit more SF - this time Joe Haldeman's, The Forever War here's a fascinating excerpt:
I went to the phone in the kitchen and with some difficulty managed to get through to the hospital. A plain girl in her twenties formed in the cube. "Nurse Donalson, general services." She had a fixed smile, professional sincerity. But then everybody smiled.
"My mother needs to be looked at by a doctor. She has a --"
"Name and number, please."
"Beth Mandella." I spelled it.
"What number?"
"Medical services number, of course," she smiled.
I called into Mom and asked her what her number was.
"She says she can't remember."
"That's alright, sir, I'm sure I can find her records."
She turned her smile to a keyboard beside her and punched out a code.
"Beth Mandella?" she said, her smile turning quizzical.
"You're her son? She must be in her eighties."
"Please. It's a long story. She really has to see a doctor."
"Is this some kind of joke?"
"What do you mean?" Strangled coughing from the other room, the worse yet. "Really -- this might be very serious, you've got to--"
"But sir, Mrs. Mandella got a zero priority rating way back in 2010. "
"What the hell is that supposed to mean?"
"S-i-r . . ." The smile was hardening in place.
"Look. Pretend I come from another planet. What is a 'zero priority rating'?"
"Another -- oh I know you!" She looked off to the left.
"Sonya -- come over here a second. You'd never guess who .." Another face crowded the cube, a vapid blonde girl who smile was twin to the other nurse's. "Remember? On the stat this morning?"
"Oh, yeah," she said. "One of the soldiers -- hey, that's really max, really max." The head withdrew.
"Oh, Mr Mandella," she said, effusive. "No wonder you're confused. It's really very simple."
"Well?"
"It's part of the Universal Medical Security System. Everybody gets a rating on their seventieth birthday. It comes in automatically from Geneva."
"What does it rate? What does it mean?" But the ugly truth was obvious.
"Well, it tells how important a person is and what level of treatment he's allowed. Class three is the same as anybody else's; class two is the same except for certain life-extending--"
"And class zero is no treatment at all."
"That's correct, Mr Mandella." And in her smile was not a glimmer of pity or understanding.
"Thank you." I disconnected. Marygay was standing behind me, crying soundlessly with her mouth wide open. ...

Joe Haldeman, The Forever War, Gollancz, SF Masterworks, pp.148-149.
Link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Forever_War

Friday, March 12, 2010

More lines - scribed in SF

I've just finished and greatly enjoyed reading Greg Bear's EON which includes:
There are an infinite number of alternatives to the Way, each originating in an alternative world-line, yet reaching beyond that world-line. Until now, Way researchers have not known quite how the alternate Ways were stacked or arranged, or indeed whether they could even be considered real. Since the Way intersects a large number of alternative world-lines - perhaps all - could there be more than one Way?

The variety of emotions available to a reconfigured human mind, thinking thoughts impossible to its ancestors . . .

The emotion of -*-, describable only as something between sexual love and the joy of intellection - making love to a thought? Or &&, the true reverse of pain, not "pleasure" but a "warning" of healing, growth and change. Or (^+^), the most complex emotion yet discovered, felt by those who consciously endure the change between mind configurations, and experience the broad spectrum of possibilities inherent in thinking and being.
pp. 492-493. Gollancz, paperback, 1985.

According to the cover I note that Mr Bear is married to the daughter of Poul Anderson an author who also figures in my (dated!) collection. A favourite is Tau Zero which I also recently re-read and passed-on. As to the quotes above I will let them stand for themselves. ...

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Walls, Lines, Dykes and Health Care



We are accustomed to defensive care and medicine.


Costs aside it seems the driving mantra (always served with a smile) is avoid risk at all cost; but we also recognise the need to balance risk in its negative and positive forms.



When it comes to thinking about care though we need to be open to new ideas, territories and opportunities and what being defensive means in practice and theory in the 21st century.



Additional links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offa%27s_Dyke
It is unlikely that the Dyke was constructed as a defensive earthwork. No army of the period could defend a 120 plus mile long earthwork. It is more likely that the Dyke was constructed as a political statement of power and intent.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Wall_of_China

Monday, February 22, 2010

Greenspan wins Dynamite Prize in Economics

Alan Greenspan has been judged the economist most responsible for causing the Global Financial Crisis. He and 2nd and 3rd place finishers Milton Friedman and Larry Summers have won the first – and hopefully last — Dynamite Prize in Economics.

In awarding the Prize, Edward Fullbrook, editor of the Real World Economics Review, noted that “They have been judged to be the three economists most responsible for the Global Financial Crisis. More figuratively, they are the three economists most responsible for blowing up the global economy.”

The prize was developed by the Real World Economics Review Blog in response to attempts by economists to evade responsibility for the crisis by calling it an unpredictable, “Black Swan” event. In reality, the public perception that economic theories and policies helped cause the crisis is correct.

The prize winners were determined by a poll in which over 7,500 people voted—most of whom were economists themselves from the 11,000 subscribers to the Real-World Economics Review. Each voter could vote for a maximum of three economists. In total 18,531 votes were cast.

Fullbrook cautioned that not all economics and economists were bad. “Only ‘neoclassical’ economists caused the GFC. There are other approaches to economics that are more realistic—or at least less delusional—but these have been suppressed in universities and excluded from government policy making.”

“Some of these rebels also did what neoclassical economists falsely claimed was impossible: they foresaw the Global Financial Crisis and warned the public of its approach. In their honour, I now call for nominations for the inaugural Revere Award in Economics, named in honour of Paul Revere and his famous ride. It will be awarded to the 3 economists who saw the GFC coming, and whose work is most likely to prevent another GFC in the future.”

Dynamite Prize Citations:

Alan Greenspan (5,061 votes)
As Chairman of the Federal Reserve System from 1987 to 2006, Alan Greenspan both led the over expansion of money and credit that created the bubble that burst and aggressively promoted the view that financial markets are naturally efficient and in no need of regulation.

Milton Friedman (3,349 votes)
Friedman propagated the delusion, through his misunderstanding of the scientific method, that an economy can be accurately modeled using counterfactual propositions about its nature. This, together with his simplistic model of money, encouraged the development of fantasy-based theories of economics and finance that facilitated the Global Financial Collapse.

Larry Summers (3,023 votes)
As US Secretary of the Treasury (formerly an economist at Harvard and the World Bank), Summers worked successfully for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which since the Great Crash of 1929 had kept deposit banking separate from casino banking. He also helped Greenspan and Wall Street torpedo efforts to regulate derivatives.

The poll was conducted by PollDaddy. Cookies were used to prevent repeat voting.
For further information and interviews email: pae_news@btinternet.com

My source: (with additional links and image) Ciresearchers.net

Image source: http://sveccha.wordpress.com/2007/11/19/laws-of-and-black-swan/


Hodges' model: POLITICAL domain resources

Friday, January 15, 2010

Were you born in 1989? Join the EU "Generation '89" project!

Are you a citizen of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania or the UK?

Meet people from your generation!
Join the "Generation '89" project!


You have the chance to participate in one of the simultaneous meetings in Brussels, Bucharest, Prague or Warsaw, and to present the Declaration "Generation '89" to EU representatives in Brussels!

Application deadline: 31 January 2010 (10 February for Belgium and Poland)

More info at www.generation89.eu

With the support of the "Citizenship" Programme of the European Union.

GENERATION 89

The project "Generation 89" proposes to commemorate the fall of the communist systems in the European countries, through the lens of the young people born in 1989. The young people from Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, Belgium, UK, Germany, Hungary, Austria and Bulgaria and have had different historical context in which they lived their lives, and one of the objectives of this project is to bring together these youngsters and to offer a space where they can share experiences and expectations for the future. In order to attain this objective, 4 international meetings will be organised in Prague, Bucharest, Warsaw, and Brussels, where for two days the participants will have a various programme focused on two themes: national past and European future.

The programme will comprise movie screenings and debates on the events from 1989, as their parents' generation lived and storied them, informational session regarding the EU policies in the matter of youth and young professionals, workshops focused in drafting a Declaration upon how they perceive their future in EU, a documentary visit to a local organisation with activity in the field of communist systems studies, sightseeing and international night. A second meeting in Brussels of a delegation of the young representatives will be organised with the EU representatives, in order to present the Declaration "Generation 89" and the young people opinion on the future of Europe and their future as citizens of EU. With the support of the "Citizenship" Programme of the European Union.

www.generation89.eu

Image source: Globe - Europe Registrarism

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Future Conceptual Frameworks for Global Health: a quote

When as an established user I compare my clinical information system to that used by my patients, their carers and those of colleagues in the interdistrict multidisciplinary team, my practise and studies reveal how far (our) health information systems have progressed. The systems (if we can still call them that) are all different. Yes different, even if the supplier is the same. It is not just the supplier, procurement process and overall appearance, but the dynamics of the interfaces with their data-information-knowledge views that now bleed semantically. Instead of the multiaxial nature of health care spearing us with its complexity, at last the domain perspectives simplify and clear vision and apprehension. The systems vary to the extent that the purposes represented could be something other than 'health', something other than the requirement. Today the purposes, our purposes are - more than ever - manifold. Whether desktop, smart-mobile, kiosk, tablet, pervasive, device bound, everyware or wearable the information systems must suit each of us individually according to our roles, clearances, purposes, use-history and info-literacy. The common features of the systems - what we do not see - are what really matter. They are becoming transparent; namely - safety, standards, fitness of purpose, usability, accessibility, but let's be ambitious, if not greedy, and add to that outcomes and reporting for all who really do need to know.

Ms. Florence Seacole Mashaba*. 3rd Year Student Nurse
Keynote address 2nd February 1000hrs
Global Conceptual Frameworks for Health & Education:
1st International Conference on Visualization in Care Models, Assessment and Evaluation.
St Francis Bay, South Africa. Monday 2nd - Thursday 5th, February, 2015.

Additional link:
RCN, Make IT SAFE, 2008
GANM - Global Alliance for Nursing and Midwifery


* Personal communication from a future fictitious individual. ;-)

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Big pictures: Hodges’ model and Future Studies

I came across a 1996 paper by Richard Slaughter - The Knowledge Base Of Futures Studies As An Evolving Process. The paper highlighted a problem faced by future studies which was (and still may be?) grappling with its knowledge base:
Why, then, is it necessary to have a knowledge base of futures studies (KBFS)? There are several reasons. First, as Norwegian futurist Kjell Dahle pointed out at the World Futures Studies Federation conference in Barcelona in September 1991, the lack of a common knowledge base greatly complicated the work of those preparing courses, planning research, teaching and developing FS projects. The field is well known for its breadth, geographical scope and range of disciplinary paradigms. Where, in all this diversity, should newcomers, particularly intending students, begin? …
As also cited on the h2cm website Slaughter notes the significance of Wilber’s quadrants as a key resource and approach -
I have referred to this work at some length because over several years Wilber’s developing account has reframed my own thinking about present and future options, both personal and collective. Such a framework integrates insights from a wide field and provides FS with powerful new understandings and tools which go beyond one-dimensional thinking (e.g. rationality, technique, forecasting) and a single privileged culture (Western culture). Here, then, is an emerging basis for big-picture thinking and action into the new millennium and beyond. Here too is where some of the most substantial developments in the KBFS are likely to occur.
[My emphasis.]
Health and social care is not only focused on the future -

It is concerned about the PAST, NOW and FUTURE

- BUT it is always future oriented.

So future studies community look over here – now (please!)

Source: Slaughter, Richard A. (1996). The Knowledge Base Of Futures Studies As An Evolving Process, Futures, 28, 9, 799-812.